DFO Projection Model Development-Steve Baillie


Recently the Powell River Salmon Society was asked to volunteer some of our data to help fisheries biologist Steve Baillie develop run timing and abundance models for fisheries management purposes. Below is an email that I received from Steve and an attachment with the model.

“Shane, here’s what I’ve done with your data.  I took the cumulative count and fitted a normal curve to it.  I can use this curve to look at a ‘standardized’ run timing, albeit based on only one year’s worth of data.

 

I’ve extracted the 10, 25, 50, 75 and 90 percentile dates.

 

What I want to use the data for is to set up a run timing model.  For example, using this run timing, if 1000 pink are seen in the Tzoonie River on 28-August, then the run timing tells me the run will be around (1000/0.093806), or 106603.  I’d run the number off to 105K.”

2013 Pink timing

Anyone with questions can contact Steve Baillie

Biologist, Strait of Georgia Stock Assessment, South Coast Area, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3225 Stephenson Point Road, Nanaimo BC, V9T 1K3

Ph (250) 756-7227   Fax (250) 756-7020   Cell (250) 616 6143

 

steve.baillie@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

 

  1. #1 by shanedobler on August 20, 2015 - 10:35 am

    An Update from Steve Today
    Shane, we had a small assessment fishery on the 18th with three seiners in Salmon and Narrows inlet. About 15K Pinks were caught. Bycatch was limited to a couple of coho and sockeye. Observations were that sufficient escapements have entered freshwater and that there are still multiple thousands of Pink salmon in the area.

    A larger fishery will be taking place in Jervis, Narrows and Salmon inlets, today and tomorrow. Effort will be limited to 9 vessels and subareas 16-7, 16-13 and 16-14 and portions of 16-6, 16-8 and 16-15. See map on attached website for the locations of these subareas. They are well inside from Lang Creek.
    http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/maps-cartes/areas-secteurs/16-eng.html

    Steve Baillie
    Biologist, Strait of Georgia Stock Assessment,
    South Coast Area, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
    3225 Stephenson Point Road, Nanaimo BC, V9T 1K3
    Ph (250) 756-7227 Fax (250) 756-7020 Cell (250) 616 6143

    steve.baillie@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

    Biologiste de soutien, Évaluation des stocks de saumons du Bassin de Géorgie,
    Région de la Côte Sud, Pêches et Océans Canada
    3225, rue Stephenson Point, Nanaimo, C.-B., V9T 1K3
    P. (250) 756-7227 F. (250) 756-7020 C. (250) 616 6143

    Alexander van Humboldt observed that there are three stages in scientific discovery. First people deny that it is true; then they deny that it is important; and finally they credit the wrong person. Bill Bryson (A Short History of Nearly Everything)

  2. #2 by shanedobler on August 25, 2015 - 9:03 am

    Hi Shane.

    The Pink catches in the fishery on 20/21 August were described a ‘modest’. I don’t have the actual numbers yet but the seiners felt there was still fish around. Based on the observed escapement into the rivers the Fishery Managers decided to continue the fishery and have an opening today and tomorrow. Same area and still limited to 9 vessels. I’ll pass along catch data when I receive it.

    Steve Baillie

    Biologist, Strait of Georgia Stock Assessment,
    South Coast Area, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
    3225 Stephenson Point Road, Nanaimo BC, V9T 1K3
    Ph (250) 756-7227 Fax (250) 756-7020 Cell (250) 616 6143

    steve.baillie@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

    Biologiste de soutien, Évaluation des stocks de saumons du Bassin de Géorgie,
    Région de la Côte Sud, Pêches et Océans Canada
    3225, rue Stephenson Point, Nanaimo, C.-B., V9T 1K3
    P. (250) 756-7227 F. (250) 756-7020 C. (250) 616 6143

    Alexander van Humboldt observed that there are three stages in scientific discovery. First people deny that it is true; then they deny that it is important; and finally they credit the wrong person. Bill Bryson (A Short History of Nearly Everything)

  3. #3 by shanedobler on August 31, 2015 - 10:48 am

    Hi Shane. Here is an update on the Pink fishery in Jervis. I don’t have a complete by catch report but it’ll be around 100 I think.
    Steve Baillie (away from my office)

    From: Rusch, Bryan
    Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 12:27 PM Eastern Standard Time
    To: Baillie, Steve; Pechter, Beth; Thomson, Andrew; Van Will, Pieter; Higgins, Linda; Conley, Matthew; Luedke, Wilf
    Cc: Conley, Kevin; Goruk, Andrea
    Subject: RE: Jervis Pinks – Update

    I have final catch info for both openings now and the total catch from Area 16 was 94,900 pinks.

    Break down from the two fisheries was:
    August 20/21: 70,100 from 8 vessels
    August 24 to 26: 24,800 from 4 vessels.

    There has been no interest in continuing as fishing was slow this last opening and there doesn’t appear to be much additional fish moving into the area.

    Bryan Rusch
    Resource Manager
    Phone: (250) 756-7294
    Email: bryan.rusch@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

    From: Baillie, Steve
    Sent: 2015–August-27 9:29 AM
    To: Rusch, Bryan; Pechter, Beth; Thomson, Andrew; Van Will, Pieter; Higgins, Linda; Conley, Matthew; Luedke, Wilf
    Cc: Conley, Kevin; Goruk, Andrea
    Subject: Re: Jervis Pinks – Update

    Any by-catch?
    Steve Baillie (away from my office)

    From: Rusch, Bryan
    Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2015 11:56 AM Eastern Standard Time
    To: Pechter, Beth; Thomson, Andrew; Baillie, Steve; Van Will, Pieter; Higgins, Linda; Conley, Matthew; Luedke, Wilf
    Cc: Conley, Kevin; Goruk, Andrea
    Subject: Jervis Pinks – Update

    Hello,
    I have final catch numbers now from the processors for all of the vessels from the first opening in Jervis/Narrows/Salmon Inlets on August 20 and 21. Total catch was 70,100 pinks from the 8 vessels that participated. Average weight of the fish worked out to 2.84 lbs.
    Working on catch from the second opening (Aug 24 to 26) and should have final numbers in the next day or so. Looks like catch will be in the 15,000 to 20,000 range based on what I’ve heard so far. Only 4 vessels participated in the second opening and there are no plans for further fishing at this point.
    Thanks,
    Bryan Rusch
    Resource Manager
    Fisheries and Oceans Canada
    3225 Stephenson Point Road
    Nanaimo BC V9T 1K3
    Phone: (250) 756-7294
    Fax: (250) 756-7162
    Email: bryan.rusch@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

(will not be published)


*